Tuesday, September 1, 2009

What are the Odds?


Trivia time! Here are some odds (as an American):

You will die in a house fire: 650 to 1. Source: WolframAlpha
You will die on the job as a U.S. fisherman over 4 years: 223 to 1. Source: Forbes' Most Dangerous Job List
You will die on the job as U.S. president over 4 years: 7.3 to 1. Source: Wikipedia

You speak Cherokee: 13,500 to 1 Source: WolframAlpha
You speak fluent Klingon: 25,300,000 to 1 Source: Wikipedia

You were arrested (in 2005): 21 to 1. Source: FBI (some people have multiple arrests, granted)
You are a police officer: 282 to 1. Source: USDOJ

You competed in the 2008 Summer Olympics: 510,000 to 1. Source: USOC
You were hit by lightning last year: 700,000 to 1. Source: NOAA
You are a chess Grandmaster: 4,432,000 to 1. Source: Wikipedia

You are a doctor: 1,186 to 1 Source: WolframAlpha
You are a lawyer: 242 to 1 Source: WolframAlpha
You are an Indian Chief: 541,000 to 1 Source: DOI

You are a butcher: 1,045 to 1: Source: WolframAlpha
You are a baker: 949 to 1: Source: WolframAlpha
You are a candlestick maker: 5,600 to 1.

This last one takes a little explaining, since finding even a ballpark number of people who put down “candlestick maker” as an occupation on official forms was not possible. What is out there, though, is a neat little estimation of job openings in 2008 for people who work in the candle making industry as molders or painters or what have you in the state of New Hampshire. Assuming candlestick makers are uniformly distributed by population per state, this seems to give somewhere around 56,000 people that do this for a living in the USA.

That seems really high to me, so if anyone has a better estimation, post a comment...

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